War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling ballots in Burma
Myanmar's junta is conducting a staggered election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Laura Meza
Laura Meza

A seasoned financial analyst with over a decade of experience in global markets and trading strategies.