Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.
On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.
But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.
This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.
Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical campaign!
The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.
Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
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