Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
